But as Mr Golding must know, and if he doesn't, we remind him, the government is still only into baby steps towards a long-term fix. It is yet to outline a broad, credible programme for a sustained recovery and growth, or to seriously engage the Jamaican people in the necessarily deep and robust conversation about the hard choices ahead. Such dialogue is important if the administration hopes to build consensus on the strategies.

To be fair to Mr Golding, though, we are now in a better position, after his speech at a Scotiabank function on Thursday, to begin to assess the fiscal direction he hopes to take. He reported that permanent secretaries had been instructed to cut 20 per cent from their budgets for programmes, suggesting an aim to 'save' around $17 billion, given that proposed expenditure in this area was around $84 billion.

Assuming debt servicing holds around $310 billion, the target announced by the prime minister suggests that he is holding firm to his undertaking not to cut public-sector jobs, which carry a bill of $26 billion. With permanent secretaries (PSs) already aggressively keeping a lid on expenditure, they will have to cut close to the bone to deliver on the PM's instructions so as to keep the fiscal deficit under six per cent of gross domestic product.

Indeed, preliminary numbers for the first four months of the fiscal year, as reported by the prime minister, underlined the magnitude of the task. According to Mr Golding, up to July, the government, faced with a steep revenue shortfall, had spent $18 billion less than projected for the first four months of the fiscal year.

Preliminary data

For the quarter April to June, spending was at $98.3 billion, $3.7 billion or 3.5 per cent below projection, with the expenditure on programmes, $15.5 billion, being 21 per cent lower than what had been planned. These numbers, given Mr Golding's preliminary data for four months to July, suggest that in July, the Government 'underspent' by a third.

With the directive to PSs, such an aggressive retrenchment can only accelerate, taking into account that the fiscal year is already five months old, with a substantial portion of the Budget already spent, and that the government has already received services for which it must now pay.

Private-capital inflows

This expected slowdown in public-sector expenditure will further dampen economic activity at a time when foreign private-capital inflows, as highlighted by the central bank's recent balance-of-payment accounts, are in retreat. In the event, some of the programmes Mr Golding promised at election time may no longer be affordable. The earlier he says so, the better. Which brings us back to our insistence on an open and frank discourse with the Jamaican people.

The government has three things it must do also as a matter of urgency if the expected plan is to move beyond stability to growth: