Minister of Tourism Edmund Bartlett is projecting a two to four per cent growth for the upcoming winter tourist season, but hoteliers are holding back on forecasts saying the market is still unpredictable.

Bartlett's projection for growth is based, he said, on the one million of committed seats flying to Jamaica over the season, with 850,000 from the United States, the country's major market.

Hoteliers generally use room bookings to estimate business.

"If we have a million seats committed for the winter season, in all probability we will be bringing in pretty close to 700,000 people or more," the tourism minister told the Financial Gleaner, having initially announced his outlook on the season at a board meeting of the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce where he was invited to speak Wednesday.

"So, on the basis of that, you can see that the winter is going to look good," he said.

Bartlett acknowledged, however, that the revenue yields were low because of the discounting being done by hoteliers.

President of the Jamaica Hotel and Tourist Association (JHTA), Wayne Cummings, was decidedly cautious about what the season would bring, though he agreed with Bartlett that the airlifts were a positive sign.

Predictions

"I agree that the air-seat allocations are secured," said Cummings, who runs a property in the Sandals chain.

"I don't want to quote a number but the minister may not be off in terms of his predictions for the winter season," he said.

But even if Jamaica brings in more visitors, it will continue to be at depressed rates, he adds.

In the 2008 winter season, hoteliers offered up 30 to 50 per cent discounts on rooms, sacrificing revenue to keep their properties in business.

According to Bartlett, earnings so far have been off by three per cent over last year, but on even that Jamaica's ultimate salesman has chosen to put a positive spin.

"I think that is phenomenal when you consider that discounting has been done across the region at very significant levels. Jamaica has not had to endure the steep discounts that other destinations have had," he said. "Those destinations that are having the discounts are not having the arrivals."

Jamaica and Cuba were the only two Caribbean islands recording growth at this time, he said, at four and three per cent, respectively.

He appealed to hoteliers whose businesses are struggling not to give up on the sector, saying tourism remained a conduit for other economic activity.

Cummings said JHTA members were in for the long haul.

"My feedback is no one has exited the market. Most people have hunkered down and have been trying to get through as much as possible," he said.

"It is teaching many of us some global lessons in terms of tighter operation. Even with higher occupancy, we will have to run leaner, meaner hotels from the back end."

dionne.rose@gleanerjm.com