It is with much concern that I note the constant statements by the minister of tourism proclaiming 3.5 per cent growth in visitor arrivals to Jamaica.

Unfortunately, these comforting proclamations, while being repeated with high frequency, seem to be unsubstantiated. What is a fact is that even as Minister Bartlett is proclaiming growth, hotels are closing because of lack of patronage, and those that remain open are experiencing low levels of occupancy.

Since the opening or closure of hotels is the reaction to growth or contraction, it is logical to conclude that what the sector is currently experiencing is a contraction, not growth. It would suggest that the minister has his numbers wrong, regardless of his source. Hoteliers would not be closing their doors while the number of guests is increasing.

This seems to be yet another occasion in which, rather than facing reality, the 'ostrich' strategy is used. Bartlett was declaring growth while all around was declaring decline.

The reality

What was the difference? The real difference with Jamaica is that while others have recorded the facts and are prepared to plan, factoring the reality of the circumstances, Jamaica was denying and continues to deny the existence of the reality of the decline. So Jamaica plans according to its fallacious beliefs, completely oblivious of the consequences. Is it any wonder the forecasted revenue inflows compare negatively to reality?

Ingratiating statements may give comfort to the gullible among those to whom they are directed but they do not change reality. The sooner the minister and the administration accept that Jamaica is not immune to the crunching effect of the recession of the world economy in general, and the United States in particular, the quicker we will be able to implement policies to cope with the realities facing us.

As a nation, we will pay dearly for the decisions taken to substitute wishful thinking for reality. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. I trust that when next the minister visits his office in Jamaica, he will pause at his desk long enough to read that hotels are closing while he is going 'to the world' pontificating on the growth of visitor arrivals during the recession.

I am, etc.,

LUCIUS C. WHITE

Kingston