If Prime Minister Golding wants a broader appreciation of the challenges he faces as the Government prepares its budget for the new fiscal year, he needs only review the latest surveys on business and consumer confidence by the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce's Conference Board.

The numbers do not make pretty reading, but they are, in a perverse way, good for Mr Golding, confirming, as they do, the existence of a crisis which the prime minister has himself said he can ill-afford to waste. But should Mr Golding not fully grasp the import of his recent declarations, and the expectations that they are bound to have generated, we remind him that as difficult as the crafting of the budget may seem, the issue goes beyond totting up the numbers or balancing the books.

A fundamental precept for the Government in this exercise must be the generation of the big idea around which the country can rally; a focal point around which the country can rally to lift itself out of pessimism and the creation of a genuine basis for sustained economic growth and development. The big idea is not necessarily a concept that is grandiose and unattainably fanciful and glib; it may be a series of small things that, in their coherence, are transformational.

According to the surveys, both business and consumer confidence during the first quarter of this year were the lowest since such attitudes began to be tracked in 2001. The confidence index among firms, for example, dipped 14.1 points, or near 17 per cent, to 75.8 points, compared to the fourth quarter of 2008. Compared to a year earlier, the index had tumbled by over 40 points or 35.3 per cent.

Over 40 per cent of the firms reported lower-than-expected profit in 2008 and a similar amount expected the situation to worsen this year. As would be expected in such circumstances, the majority of managers do not plan to invest in business expansion.

Indeed, 88 per cent of consumers said that jobs were in short supply, and only 14 per cent expected an improvement, down from 30 per cent a year earlier. With a sharp drop in the number expecting a rising in income in the near term, consumers are putting off spending plans. In other words, they are pessimistic. Indeed, the 29.7 points or 23.6 per cent slump in the index, to 96, was the steepest decline in eight years.

Deep failing in economy

This lack of confidence is no mere passing phase, but is indicative of a deep failing in the Jamaican economy: its inability for too long to deliver sustained growth and an acceptable quality of life to the majority of the country's people. It is the positives, therefore, in any such measure of the mood of consumers and firms that are fleeting.

Mr Golding and his government have a window of opportunity not only to take the tough decisions to bring down the public sector deficit and move to sustained macro-economic stability, but to change the narrative on progress in Jamaica.

If Mr Golding has the mettle, in this budget we will see, among other things, aggressive action to cut the public sector, reform the bureaucracy, simplify the tax system, broaden the tax net and reduce rates, divest state enterprises, start a new and trustful dialogue with the private sector and eliminate tribal politics.

The opinions on this page, except for the above, do not necessarily reflect the views of The Gleaner. To respond to a Gleaner editorial, email us: editor@gleanerjm.com or fax: 922-6223. Responses should be no longer than 400 words. Not all responses will be published.